67 lines
2.4 KiB
Markdown
67 lines
2.4 KiB
Markdown
# VWAP Trend Bot
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## Overview
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This is an implementation of the strategy presented in the paper [Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) The Holy Grail for Day Trading Systems](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4631351) (2023).
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The strategy is very basic, initiating long positions when price closes above VWAP and short positions when price closes below VWAP.
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Trades are held either until price closes in the opposite direction with respect to VWAP or the end of the trading day.
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## Backtest Results
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### ETFs
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#### TQQQ, 1 Minute, 2018-2024
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Starting from 2018 with TQQQ which is what the authors of the paper did.
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![TQQQ, 1 Minute, 2018-2024, Analysis](./backtest-results/tqqq_1m_2018_2024_analysis.png)
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![TQQQ, 1 Minute, 2018-2024, Summary](./backtest-results/tqqq_1m_2018_2024_summary.png)
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#### TQQQ, 1 Minute, 2010-2024
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1-minute data for TQQQ from my data provider begins in February 2010.
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![TQQQ, 1 Minute, 2010-2024, Analysis](./backtest-results/tqqq_1m_2010_2024_analysis.png)
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![TQQQ, 1 Minute, 2010-2024, Summary](./backtest-results/tqqq_1m_2010_2024_summary.png)
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Unfortunately the results for TQQQ don't look as good as the paper suggests, at least not anymore.
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#### QQQ, 1 Minute, 2007-2024
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1-minute data for QQQ from my data provider begins in April 2007.
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![QQQ, 1 Minute, 2007-2024, Analysis](./backtest-results/qqq_1m_2007_2024_analysis.png)
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![QQQ, 1 Minute, 2007-2024, Summary](./backtest-results/qqq_1m_2007_2024_summary.png)
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#### SPY, 1 Minute, 2007-2024
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1-minute data for SPY from my data provider begins in April 2007.
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![SPY, 1 Minute, 2007-2024, Analysis](./backtest-results/spy_1m_2007_2024_analysis.png)
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![SPY, 1 Minute, 2007-2024, Summary](./backtest-results/spy_1m_2007_2024_summary.png)
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### Futures
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**NOTE**: Backtest results for futures are using US equities extended trading hours as the results look more favorable than when including all of globex.
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Also, I'm using a higher time frame here (15 minute) in order to limit the number of trades due to fees + commissions on futures, but results for lower time frames should be similar.
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#### NQ, 15 Minute, 2018-2024
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![NQ, 15 Minute, Analysis](./backtest-results/nq_15m_analysis.png)
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![NQ, 15 Minute, Summary](./backtest-results/nq_15m_summary.png)
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#### ES, 15 Minute, 2018-2024
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![ES, 15 Minute, Analysis](./backtest-results/es_15m_analysis.png)
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![ES, 15 Minute, Summary](./backtest-results/es_15m_summary.png)
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