ninjatrader/strategies/intraday-weakness/README.md

# Intraday Weakness

This strategy was taken from chapter 8 of [Short Term Trading Strategies That Work](https://moshferatu.dev/moshferatu/short-term-trading-strategies-that-work) (2008) by Larry Connors.

## Rules

1. The stock closes at a 10-period low and is above its 200-day simple moving average.
2. Average volume over the past 100 days is at least 250,000 shares per day.
3. Price is greater than $5 per share.
4. Buy on the close.
5. Exit on the close 5 trading days later.

**Bonus**:

In addition, buy on a limit the next day 1/3/5/7/10% lower.

## Parameters

**Long Term Trend Period**: The period of the simple moving average trend filter. (Default: 200)

**Low Period**: The period over which to calculate the low. (Default: 10)

**Days to Exit**: The number of days to wait before exiting the position. (Default: 5)

**Use Limit Orders**: Whether to use a limit order to enter a trade the day following the signal. (Default: false)

**Limit Order Percent**: What percentage lower than the current price to set the entry limit order. (Default: 1)

## Backtest Results

I don't have a way to aggregate backtests over a universe of stocks (e.g., S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) at the moment.

For that reason, rules #2 and #3 are currently not implemented.

I also lack a historical list of each index's constituents that is free of survivorship bias (i.e., includes stocks of companies that were ultimately delisted).

### ETFs

#### SPY

![SPY Analysis](./backtest-results/spy_analysis.png)

![SPY Summary](./backtest-results/spy_summary.png)

#### QQQ

![QQQ Analysis](./backtest-results/qqq_analysis.png)

![QQQ Summary](./backtest-results/qqq_summary.png)

### Stocks

#### MSFT

![MSFT Analysis](./backtest-results/msft_analysis.png)

![MSFT Summary](./backtest-results/msft_summary.png)

**3% Limit Order Entry**

![MSFT Limit Order Analysis](./backtest-results/msft_limit_analysis.png)

![MSFT Limit Order Summary](./backtest-results/msft_limit_summary.png)

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