396 lines
19 KiB
Python
396 lines
19 KiB
Python
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import logging
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import numpy as np
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import os
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import pandas as pd
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import plotly.express as px
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from dotenv import load_dotenv
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from dataclasses import dataclass
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from enum import Enum
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from os import getenv
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load_dotenv()
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logging.basicConfig(level=logging.WARN)
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FEES_PER_CONTRACT = 0.80
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MARKET_CLOSE = '16:00:00'
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MARKET_OPEN = '09:35:00'
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OPTION_DATA_DIRECTORY = os.getenv('OPTION_DATA_DIRECTORY')
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STRIKE_MULTIPLE = 5.0
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class OptionType(Enum):
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PUT = 'P'
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CALL = 'C'
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@dataclass
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class OptionStrat:
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delta_upper_bound: float
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delta_lower_bound: float
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credit_target: float
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max_loss: float
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number_of_contracts: int
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option_type: OptionType
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spread_width: int
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stop_loss_multiple: float
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stop_loss_percent: float
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trade_entry_time: str
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@dataclass
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class BacktestResult:
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date: str
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trade_entered: bool
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trade_pnl: float
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profit: float
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credit: float
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mfe: float
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mae: float
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# Metrics
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dates = []
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max_drawdowns = []
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max_profits = []
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wins = []
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exit_times = []
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def plot(backtest_results: pd.DataFrame, title: str):
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backtest_results.rename(columns = {'date' : 'Date', 'profit' : 'Profit'}, inplace = True)
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# Exclude dates on which the market was closed from being plotted in order to prevent gaps on chart.
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backtest_date_range = pd.date_range(start="2016-01-01", end="2023-12-31").to_list()
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backtest_date_range = set([timestamp.strftime('%Y-%m-%d') for timestamp in backtest_date_range])
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backtested_dates = set(backtest_results['Date'].to_list())
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excluded_dates = backtest_date_range - backtested_dates
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backtest_results['Color'] = np.where(backtest_results['Profit'] >= 0, 'limegreen', 'red')
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color_sequence = ['limegreen', 'red'] if backtest_results.iloc[0]['Profit'] >= 0 else ['red', 'limegreen']
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print('Backtest Results:')
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print(backtest_results)
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chart = px.bar(backtest_results, x='Date', y='Profit', title=title, color='Color', color_discrete_sequence=color_sequence, hover_data={'Color': False})
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chart.update_layout({
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'font_color': '#7a7c7d',
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'plot_bgcolor': '#0f0f0f',
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'paper_bgcolor': '#0f0f0f',
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'title_font_color': '#7a7c7d',
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'xaxis': {
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'gridcolor': '#0f0f0f',
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'zerolinecolor': '#0f0f0f'
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},
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'yaxis': {
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'gridcolor': '#0f0f0f',
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'zerolinecolor': '#0f0f0f'
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}
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})
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chart.update_traces(marker_line_width=0, selector=dict(type='bar'))
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chart.update_layout(bargap=0, bargroupgap = 0)
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chart.update_layout(showlegend=False)
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chart.update_xaxes(rangebreaks=[dict(values=list(excluded_dates))])
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chart.show()
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def get_spread_history_credit(historical_option_data: pd.DataFrame, option_strat: OptionStrat) -> pd.DataFrame:
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current_date = historical_option_data.iloc[0]['quote_datetime'][:10]
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opening_quotes = historical_option_data[(historical_option_data['quote_datetime'] == (current_date + ' ' + option_strat.trade_entry_time))]
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if opening_quotes.empty:
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return None
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else:
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opening_quotes_by_contract_type = opening_quotes[opening_quotes['option_type'] == option_strat.option_type.value]
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short_contract_candidates = opening_quotes_by_contract_type[(opening_quotes_by_contract_type['bid'] >= (option_strat.credit_target - 1.0)) & (opening_quotes_by_contract_type['bid'] < (option_strat.credit_target + 1.0))]
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credit_increment = 2.00
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while short_contract_candidates.empty:
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short_contract_candidates = opening_quotes_by_contract_type[(opening_quotes_by_contract_type['bid'] >= (option_strat.credit_target - credit_increment)) & (opening_quotes_by_contract_type['bid'] < (option_strat.credit_target + credit_increment))]
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credit_increment += 1.00
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strike_candidates = {}
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for i in range(len(short_contract_candidates)):
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candidate = short_contract_candidates.iloc[i]
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strike_candidates[candidate['bid']] = candidate['strike']
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closest_bid = min(strike_candidates, key=lambda candidate_bid: abs(option_strat.credit_target - candidate_bid))
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short_strike = strike_candidates[closest_bid]
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logging.info('Short Strike: %s', short_strike)
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long_strike = short_strike + (option_strat.spread_width if option_strat.option_type == OptionType.CALL else -option_strat.spread_width)
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# Sometimes the strike we're interested in doesn't exist. Find the nearest one that does.
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increment = 5.0 if option_strat.option_type == OptionType.CALL else -5.0
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while opening_quotes_by_contract_type[(opening_quotes_by_contract_type['strike'] == long_strike)].empty: # TODO: Doesn't work for one day in 2018.
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long_strike = long_strike + increment
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logging.info('Long Strike: %s', long_strike)
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short_strike_history = historical_option_data[(historical_option_data['strike'] == short_strike) & (historical_option_data['option_type'] == option_strat.option_type.value)].set_index('quote_datetime')
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long_strike_history = historical_option_data[(historical_option_data['strike'] == long_strike) & (historical_option_data['option_type'] == option_strat.option_type.value)].set_index('quote_datetime')
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spread_history = short_strike_history.join(long_strike_history, lsuffix='_short_strike', rsuffix='_long_strike', on='quote_datetime')
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return spread_history
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def get_spread_history(historical_option_data: pd.DataFrame, option_strat: OptionStrat) -> pd.DataFrame:
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current_date = historical_option_data.iloc[0]['quote_datetime'][:10]
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opening_quotes = historical_option_data[(historical_option_data['quote_datetime'] == (current_date + ' ' + option_strat.trade_entry_time))]
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if opening_quotes.empty:
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return None
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else:
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if option_strat.option_type == OptionType.PUT:
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short_contract_candidates = opening_quotes[(opening_quotes['delta'] > -option_strat.delta_upper_bound) & (opening_quotes['delta'] <= -option_strat.delta_lower_bound)]
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else:
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short_contract_candidates = opening_quotes[(opening_quotes['delta'] < option_strat.delta_upper_bound) & (opening_quotes['delta'] >= option_strat.delta_lower_bound)]
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delta_increment = 0.01
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while short_contract_candidates.empty:
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if option_strat.option_type == OptionType.PUT:
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short_contract_candidates = opening_quotes[(opening_quotes['delta'] > (-option_strat.delta_upper_bound - delta_increment)) & (opening_quotes['delta'] <= -option_strat.delta_lower_bound)]
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else:
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short_contract_candidates = opening_quotes[(opening_quotes['delta'] < (option_strat.delta_upper_bound + delta_increment)) & (opening_quotes['delta'] >= option_strat.delta_lower_bound)]
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delta_increment = delta_increment + 0.01
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# Might return more than one, take greatest strike
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short_contract = short_contract_candidates.iloc[-1]
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short_strike = short_contract['strike']
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logging.info('Short Strike: %s', short_strike)
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long_strike = short_strike + (option_strat.spread_width if option_strat.option_type == OptionType.CALL else -option_strat.spread_width)
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# Sometimes the strike we're interested in doesn't exist. Find the nearest one that does.
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increment = 5.0 if option_strat.option_type == OptionType.CALL else -5.0
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while opening_quotes[(opening_quotes['strike'] == long_strike)].empty: # TODO: Doesn't work for one day in 2018.
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long_strike = long_strike + increment
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logging.info('Long Strike: %s', long_strike)
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short_strike_history = historical_option_data[(historical_option_data['strike'] == short_strike) & (historical_option_data['option_type'] == option_strat.option_type.value)].set_index('quote_datetime')
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long_strike_history = historical_option_data[(historical_option_data['strike'] == long_strike) & (historical_option_data['option_type'] == option_strat.option_type.value)].set_index('quote_datetime')
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spread_history = short_strike_history.join(long_strike_history, lsuffix='_short_strike', rsuffix='_long_strike', on='quote_datetime')
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return spread_history
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def _backtest_iron_condor(
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historical_option_data: pd.DataFrame,
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call_spread_strat: OptionStrat,
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put_spread_strat: OptionStrat
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) -> BacktestResult:
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call_spread_history = get_spread_history(historical_option_data, call_spread_strat)
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put_spread_history = get_spread_history(historical_option_data, put_spread_strat)
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current_date = call_spread_history.iloc[0].name[:10]
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call_spread_entry = call_spread_history.loc[current_date + ' ' + call_spread_strat.trade_entry_time]
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original_call_spread_price = ((call_spread_entry['ask_short_strike'] + call_spread_entry['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((call_spread_entry['ask_long_strike'] + call_spread_entry['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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put_spread_entry = put_spread_history.loc[current_date + ' ' + put_spread_strat.trade_entry_time]
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original_put_spread_price = ((put_spread_entry['ask_short_strike'] + put_spread_entry['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((put_spread_entry['ask_long_strike'] + put_spread_entry['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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# Calculate entry slippage.
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if original_call_spread_price > 0.05:
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original_call_spread_price = original_call_spread_price - (original_call_spread_price % 0.05)
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logging.info('Original Call Spread Price: %s', original_call_spread_price)
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if original_put_spread_price > 0.05:
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original_put_spread_price = original_put_spread_price - (original_put_spread_price % 0.05)
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logging.info('Original Put Spread Price: %s', original_put_spread_price)
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premium_received = original_call_spread_price + original_put_spread_price
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trades_entered = False
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call_spread_stopped_out = False
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put_spread_stopped_out = False
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took_profit = False
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took_early_loss = False
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max_profit = 0.0
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max_drawdown = 0.0
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exit_time = 160000
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for i in range(len(call_spread_history)):
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call_spread = call_spread_history.iloc[i]
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put_spread = put_spread_history.iloc[i]
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if call_spread.name.endswith(call_spread_strat.trade_entry_time):
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trades_entered = True
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continue
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if not trades_entered:
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continue
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if call_spread.name.endswith('16:05:00') or call_spread.name.endswith('16:10:00') or call_spread.name.endswith('16:15:00'):
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continue
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if call_spread['high_short_strike'] > call_spread['high_long_strike']:
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current_call_spread_price = call_spread['high_short_strike'] - call_spread['high_long_strike']
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else:
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current_call_spread_price = ((call_spread['ask_short_strike'] + call_spread['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((call_spread['ask_long_strike'] + call_spread['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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if put_spread['high_short_strike'] > put_spread['high_long_strike']:
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current_put_spread_price = put_spread['high_short_strike'] - put_spread['high_long_strike']
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else:
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current_put_spread_price = ((put_spread['ask_short_strike'] + put_spread['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((put_spread['ask_long_strike'] + put_spread['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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if not call_spread_stopped_out:
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if current_call_spread_price >= ((call_spread_strat.stop_loss_multiple + 1) * original_call_spread_price):
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premium_received -= original_call_spread_price * (call_spread_strat.stop_loss_multiple + 1)
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# Calculate exit slippage.
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premium_received -= 0.10 # TODO: Make this configurable.
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call_spread_stopped_out = True
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exit_time = int(call_spread.name[-8:].replace(':', ''))
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logging.info('Call Spread Stopped Out')
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if not put_spread_stopped_out:
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if current_put_spread_price >= ((put_spread_strat.stop_loss_multiple + 1) * original_put_spread_price):
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premium_received -= original_put_spread_price * (put_spread_strat.stop_loss_multiple + 1)
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premium_received -= 0.10 # TODO: Make this configurable.
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put_spread_stopped_out = True
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exit_time = int(call_spread.name[-8:].replace(':', ''))
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logging.info('Put Spread Stopped Out')
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if not (call_spread_stopped_out and put_spread_stopped_out):
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if current_call_spread_price > current_put_spread_price:
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if put_spread['low_short_strike'] > put_spread['low_long_strike']:
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current_put_spread_price = put_spread['low_short_strike'] - put_spread['low_long_strike']
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else:
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current_put_spread_price = ((put_spread['ask_short_strike'] + put_spread['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((put_spread['ask_long_strike'] + put_spread['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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else:
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if call_spread['low_short_strike'] > call_spread['low_long_strike']:
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current_call_spread_price = call_spread['low_short_strike'] - call_spread['low_long_strike']
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else:
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current_call_spread_price = ((call_spread['ask_short_strike'] + call_spread['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((call_spread['ask_long_strike'] + call_spread['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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if call_spread_stopped_out:
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current_call_spread_price = original_call_spread_price * (call_spread_strat.stop_loss_multiple + 1)
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if put_spread['high_short_strike'] > put_spread['high_long_strike']:
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current_put_spread_price = put_spread['high_short_strike'] - put_spread['high_long_strike']
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else:
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current_put_spread_price = ((put_spread['ask_short_strike'] + put_spread['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((put_spread['ask_long_strike'] + put_spread['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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if put_spread_stopped_out:
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current_put_spread_price = original_put_spread_price * (put_spread_strat.stop_loss_multiple + 1)
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if call_spread['high_short_strike'] > call_spread['high_long_strike']:
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current_call_spread_price = call_spread['high_short_strike'] - call_spread['high_long_strike']
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else:
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current_call_spread_price = ((call_spread['ask_short_strike'] + call_spread['bid_short_strike']) / 2.0) - ((call_spread['ask_long_strike'] + call_spread['bid_long_strike']) / 2.0)
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current_profit = (original_call_spread_price - current_call_spread_price) + (original_put_spread_price - current_put_spread_price)
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current_profit_dollars = current_profit * call_spread_strat.number_of_contracts * 100
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if current_profit_dollars > max_profit:
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max_profit = current_profit_dollars
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if current_profit_dollars < max_drawdown:
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max_drawdown = current_profit_dollars
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if not took_profit and not took_early_loss:
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if not call_spread_stopped_out and current_call_spread_price > 0.05:
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premium_received -= current_call_spread_price
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if not put_spread_stopped_out and current_put_spread_price > 0.05:
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premium_received -= current_put_spread_price
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number_of_contracts = call_spread_strat.number_of_contracts
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||
|
|
stop_out_fees = 0.0 # It costs money to get stopped out.
|
||
|
|
if call_spread_stopped_out:
|
||
|
|
stop_out_fees += (2 * FEES_PER_CONTRACT * number_of_contracts)
|
||
|
|
if put_spread_stopped_out:
|
||
|
|
stop_out_fees += (2 * FEES_PER_CONTRACT * number_of_contracts)
|
||
|
|
fees = 4 * FEES_PER_CONTRACT * number_of_contracts
|
||
|
|
commissions = 4 * number_of_contracts
|
||
|
|
premium_received = (premium_received * number_of_contracts * 100) - (fees + commissions) - stop_out_fees
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
dates.append(current_date)
|
||
|
|
max_drawdowns.append(max_drawdown)
|
||
|
|
max_profits.append(max_profit)
|
||
|
|
wins.append(True if premium_received > 0 else False)
|
||
|
|
exit_times.append(exit_time)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
result = BacktestResult(
|
||
|
|
date = current_date,
|
||
|
|
trade_entered = True,
|
||
|
|
trade_pnl = premium_received,
|
||
|
|
profit = 0.0,
|
||
|
|
credit = original_call_spread_price + original_put_spread_price,
|
||
|
|
mfe = max_profit,
|
||
|
|
mae = max_drawdown
|
||
|
|
)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
logging.info('Premium Received: %f', premium_received)
|
||
|
|
return result
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
def backtest_iron_condor(
|
||
|
|
call_spread_strat: OptionStrat,
|
||
|
|
put_spread_strat: OptionStrat,
|
||
|
|
start_date: datetime,
|
||
|
|
end_date: datetime
|
||
|
|
) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
total_premium_received = 0.0
|
||
|
|
total_trades = 0.0
|
||
|
|
total_wins = 0.0
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
result_dates = []
|
||
|
|
result_pnl = []
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
results = []
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
start_year = start_date.year
|
||
|
|
end_year = end_date.year
|
||
|
|
for year in range(start_year, end_year + 1):
|
||
|
|
year_directory = os.path.join(OPTION_DATA_DIRECTORY, str(year))
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
for file in os.listdir(year_directory):
|
||
|
|
historical_data_file = os.path.join(year_directory, file)
|
||
|
|
if os.path.isdir(historical_data_file) or not file.endswith('.csv'):
|
||
|
|
continue
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
# Assuming file format 'YYYY-MM-DD.csv'.
|
||
|
|
file_date_str = os.path.splitext(file)[0]
|
||
|
|
file_date = datetime.strptime(file_date_str, '%Y-%m-%d')
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
if file_date < start_date or file_date > end_date:
|
||
|
|
continue
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
print('Processing File:', historical_data_file)
|
||
|
|
logging.info('Processing File: %s', historical_data_file)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
historical_option_data = pd.read_csv(historical_data_file)
|
||
|
|
backtest_result = _backtest_iron_condor(historical_option_data, call_spread_strat, put_spread_strat)
|
||
|
|
total_premium_received += backtest_result.trade_pnl
|
||
|
|
backtest_result.profit = total_premium_received
|
||
|
|
results.append(backtest_result)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
if backtest_result.trade_entered:
|
||
|
|
total_trades += 1
|
||
|
|
if backtest_result.trade_pnl > 0.0:
|
||
|
|
total_wins += 1
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
logging.info('Overall PnL: %f', total_premium_received)
|
||
|
|
logging.info('Win Rate: %f', (total_wins / total_trades) if total_trades > 0 else 0.0)
|
||
|
|
logging.info('Average Premium Received: %f', (total_premium_received / total_trades) if total_trades > 0 else 0.0)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
current_date = historical_option_data.iloc[0]['quote_datetime'][:10]
|
||
|
|
result_dates.append(current_date)
|
||
|
|
result_pnl.append(total_premium_received)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
backtest_results = pd.DataFrame([result.__dict__ for result in results])
|
||
|
|
return backtest_results
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
def create_strategies(entry_time, number_of_contracts=1):
|
||
|
|
call_spread_strat = OptionStrat(
|
||
|
|
delta_upper_bound=0.11,
|
||
|
|
delta_lower_bound=0.10,
|
||
|
|
credit_target=1.50,
|
||
|
|
max_loss=5000,
|
||
|
|
number_of_contracts=number_of_contracts,
|
||
|
|
option_type=OptionType.CALL,
|
||
|
|
spread_width=50,
|
||
|
|
stop_loss_multiple=1.00,
|
||
|
|
stop_loss_percent=1.0,
|
||
|
|
trade_entry_time=entry_time
|
||
|
|
)
|
||
|
|
put_spread_strat = OptionStrat(
|
||
|
|
delta_upper_bound=0.11,
|
||
|
|
delta_lower_bound=0.10,
|
||
|
|
credit_target=1.50,
|
||
|
|
max_loss=5000,
|
||
|
|
number_of_contracts=number_of_contracts,
|
||
|
|
option_type=OptionType.PUT,
|
||
|
|
spread_width=50,
|
||
|
|
stop_loss_multiple=1.00,
|
||
|
|
stop_loss_percent=1.0,
|
||
|
|
trade_entry_time=entry_time
|
||
|
|
)
|
||
|
|
return call_spread_strat, put_spread_strat
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
if __name__ == '__main__':
|
||
|
|
start_date = datetime(2023, 1, 1)
|
||
|
|
end_date = datetime.now()
|
||
|
|
call_spread_strat, put_spread_strat = create_strategies(entry_time = '10:05:00')
|
||
|
|
backtest_result = backtest_iron_condor(call_spread_strat, put_spread_strat, start_date, end_date)
|
||
|
|
plot(backtest_result, title = 'Iron Condor Backtest Results')
|